The global e-car sales figures

As announced at the end of last year, the subsidy for the purchase of an electric car in France fell from up to 5,000 to 4,000 euros in mid-February. However, electromobility is not called into question because the reduction only affects the 50 percent of the French with the highest incomes. For all eligible cars, the premium will continue to be paid for cars with a list price of no more than 47,000 euros and a weight of 2.4 tonnes.

In Norway, the leading market for e-mobility, many advantages such as the long-standing VAT reduction for e-mobilists also disappeared at the beginning of the year. However, unlike in Germany, their expiry was announced for the long term and only caused a short-term and slight decline in BEV registrations. The consulting specialists at Berylls Strategy Advisors assume that the general upward trend in e-mobility in Norway will remain unbroken.

Compared to 2022, e-mobility developed positively in 2023 in the most important markets worldwide. Germany and Great Britain made little progress.

While Scandinavia and the Benelux countries, especially the Netherlands, are considered electric model countries, Southern and especially Eastern Europe are hardly developing. In Spain and Italy, minimal growth can be observed, but market penetration with BEVs is very low, with shares of the existing fleet of well below two percent. Growth this year is one to three percent, too little to be able to speak of success. In Poland, experts expect practically no growth at all for electric cars.

This is the situation in the car markets of China and the USA

From a global perspective, however, e-mobility is a success story. It is mainly written in China. The CAM forecasts a global sales volume of ten million electric cars for 2024, 60 percent of which will find their buyers in China alone. Here, the market will grow again, probably by 17 percent. This may sound huge compared to other markets, but in fact, electric car sales in China still increased by 21 percent in 2023. Apparently, the enthusiasm for e-cars is currently cooling down somewhat in the world's largest car market. But not for other forms of sustainable propulsion, because the numbers for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are rising steeply in China.

In China, France, Great Britain and the USA, the numbers are rising, but in the USA almost exclusively in California (plus six percent), in the rest of the country growth is only between one and three percent.

Internationally, there are differences in the drive mix. In China, plug-in hybrids continue to be in high demand, and in France and the UK, the numbers are also rising, so that the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) is growing faster than the purely electric car. For hybrids, experts expect growth of up to 40 percent. In large countries such as China and the USA, the PHEV apparently offers an increasingly welcome opportunity to drive electrically without having to worry about range.

Because the Americans are also turning to this form of drive, Ford and General Motors have already adjusted their production volumes, are scaling down electric car production and ramping up that of plug-ins. This development hits one electric car manufacturer particularly hard: Tesla.

Tesla no longer shines

Of all things, electric pioneer Tesla is weakening particularly badly in all world markets. An increasingly aging model range, frequent price reductions – most recently in mid-April – that make the residual values of used Tesla incalculable, and the lack of low-cost entry-level models are causing sales to plummet. In the last quarterly report, Elon Musk tried to reassure investors and announced cheap volume models. However, without giving details about technology or market launch. As a rule, many years pass between Tesla's initial announcement and market launch. Competitors like BYD, with a young and affordable model range, are finding it increasingly easy to make life difficult for Tesla – so far only in China. But BYD also wants to sell cars en masse in Europe. A goal that other Chinese manufacturers are also pursuing. Good news for customers in this case is a growing problem for all traditional manufacturers. They will lose market share.

In its home market, Tesla had its largest customer base in the coastal states, especially in California. Berylls Strategy Advisors expects a positive development in new electric car registrations for the Sunshine State in 2024 as well - but with lower growth compared to previous years. Seven to ten percent seem realistic. The fact that there are no more is mainly due to two circumstances: There is a lack of affordable entry-level models and charging facilities. But both must and will change, not only in California.

Experts see a growing acceptance of e-mobility throughout Europe if purchase prices and ranges are right. Alexander Timmer of Berylls-Partner says: "We are observing numerous signs that many Europeans are willing to consider an electric vehicle. It does not frighten them that the public BEV debate is still very controversial." However, the price has to be right.

Cheap e-cars desired

Bringing low-cost models to the market that match buyers' wishes is the biggest challenge for manufacturers. Almost all of them are working on corresponding cars. Citroën will offer the ë-C3 this year, Renault the electric 5. Dacia recently presented the new Spring, Mini the second generation of the electrified Cooper. Škoda comes with an as yet unnamed entry-level electric car, Fiat with the Pandina. They are all e-cars under 30,000 euros, many are even said to cost less than 25,000 euros. In 2025 – as the manufacturers have announced – the entry-level models Ford Puma Gen-E, Renault R4 and Twingo as well as the Cupra Raval and VW ID.2 siblings will come. Tesla, until recently still in talks with the Model 2, initially wanted to stop its development, but still wants to enter the development of low-cost volume models. However, it is completely open when these will be launched on the market. Autonomous robotaxes, on the other hand, are at the top of the agenda. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to iron out a dent in the e-car registration figures in the foreseeable future.

Despite slumps: 2024 will be a successful year for e-mobility

2024 will ultimately be a successful year for e-mobility, the industry experts assume. The biggest driver is China. In the USA, they expect only slight growth due to political uncertainty. In Europe, the signs are also pointing to growth, but not in Germany, where cars with gasoline engines in particular are increasing again in the registration statistics. This is not good news for German manufacturers, whose electric models are not very popular and in demand in China. Because although they have gasoline engines for the domestic market in a wide variety of variants in their range, they urgently need to sell more electric cars.

Manufacturers need successful e-mobility, otherwise there is a risk of fines

Because the CO2 limits for manufacturers will change in 2025, they are forced to help e-mobility succeed if they want to avoid fines. By the end of 2024, a manufacturer's models will only be allowed to emit an average of 115 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. From 2025, these emissions must be reduced to 98 grams, and by a further 50 percent from 2030. Without e-cars, which are included in these calculations as zero-emission vehicles, these reductions cannot be achieved. Manufacturers must therefore increase BEV sales figures strongly and quickly. They want to achieve this, for example, with cheaper leasing rates. Many manufacturers are also relying on reduced prices, special models or discounts on e-cars.

It can only be good for us customers if e-cars become cheaper and at the same time the range of cars on offer increases.